Changing Populations in Virginia — The Death and Life of Virginia Localities

Luke Juday is director of planning for the City of Waynesboro, VA.  He stated that after decades of attracting migrants from across the country, Virginia has suddenly experienced three consecutive years of net loss to other parts of the country. The effects of that change will start to ripple across the Commonwealth. With cities getting younger and rural areas getting older, population growth is becoming more and more polarized. The economic climate is becoming increasingly competitive for cities and towns, forcing local leaders to find new niches in a global economy. The program was moderated by SSV Vice President Rich DeMong.  Listen while watching his excellent  presentation as a PDF.

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Luke Juday is director of planning for the City of Waynesboro, VA. Before coming to Waynesboro, he was a transportation planner at the Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission and a demographer at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center, where most of this presentation was prepared. He has a bachelor’s degree in political philosophy from Grove City College, a Master’s in Urban and Environmental Planning from the University of Virginia, and was a Fulbright Scholar in Botswana. He is originally from Chesapeake, VA, where he was home schooled through high school.

Program Summary

Components of Population Change are “natural increase” which is the number of births minus the number of deaths combined with “net migration” which is in-migration minus out-migration. Between 2010 and 2015, Virginia’s population increased by 381,969 which consisted of a natural increase of 220,026 and an increase of migration of 161,943.

With regard to natural increase, Mr. Juday explained the importance of the age distribution within the population. With more younger persons, the population will increase due to higher birthrates and lower death rates. Today in America there are more 60 year-olds than 6-year-olds. From 2005 to 2015, the population in Virginia of those under 18 years of age increased by only 2.9 percent while those over 65 increased 37.9 percent.

Mr. Juday employed a PowerPoint presentation that was packed with charts and graphs to help understand the intertwining of factors contributing to population change both in the nation and Virginia. He also detailed trends in population shifts in the urban core, inner ring, outer ring, satellite counties and outside of metro areas.

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