J. Miles Coleman is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ authoritative, nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. A New Orleans native, Miles is a 2014 graduate of Louisiana State University, where he double-majored Anthropology and International Studies. A political cartographer, Miles has generated a portfolio of thousands of electoral maps to illustrate his thoughts. Coleman’s talk today covered his assessment of the 2025 VA governor’s election, a preview of the 2026 midterm elections, the current plan for 2026 VA redistricting map, referendum and thoughts on 2026 election topics.

Abigail Spanberger beat Winsome Earle-Sears by a 16% margin. Coleman explained the large majority by noting Spanberger’s 7 years in US Congress in competitive races, her access to a national donor base, focusing on the economy and a backlash against Trump. While Earle- Sears had a good story and professional history, her focus on transgender issues which has lower voter appeal and previous win on Youngkin’s coattails were not enough to win. Coleman observed that people are currently voting more along party lines rather than crossing party and voting for individuals.

Jay Jones win over Jason Miyares who was the only incumbent on the ballot for attorney general was unexpected as poles showed Miyares with slight lead. The reasons may have be that people were uncomfortable saying they would vote for Jones after the scandal and voting straight party line. At the federal level in Congress, using multiple red and blue maps to explain the 26 midterm elections, Coleman sees the Democrats holding their majority in the Senate but noted there are several vulnerable in districts. The Republicans face the same issues to hold on to the House of Representatives. The closeness of the majority is the basic reason for the current “redistricting wars”.

Virginia’s new redistricting map drawn up by Democrats, is being appealed by Republicans to the VA Supreme Court. If the court allows the process to proceed there with be a statewide referendum vote on April 21 for this single issue.

Coleman’s thoughts on topics for the midterm elections included immigration, consumer satisfaction, housing and Trump approval.

For more information: centerforpolitics.org