Picking up the Pieces: Data-Driven Takeaways from the 2024 Election
Sunday, January 12th, 2025The January 2025 program was led by J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of VA Center for Politics. Miles crafted very illustrative slides and prefaced his talk with the caveat that “traditional indicators” in analyzing elections were “out the window.” To our rapt audience of about fifty-five people, Miles turned first to Oceola County, Florida and said that “things began to go haywire for Harris there.” The numbers showed that county went 60% for Biden in 2020 but went narrowly for Trump in 2024. Closer to home, he looked at Loudon County, Virginia, where data had Harris carrying the vote by a 17% margin, this was down from Biden’s 20% in 2020. He and others were shocked that all the so-called “toss up states” went for Trump, especially in view of how well Democrats had done in the off-year elections. He attributed the difference to “Trump’s strength in getting voters who do not regularly vote to the polls to vote for him,” and remarked that there is a “Global Anti-Incumbent” view. Pre-election polls showed Americans likely to vote were evenly concerned about the economy and the future of democracy. His summarized that the 2024 Presidential election numbers showed Trump did better everywhere, even in California and New York, where democratic majorities were smaller. Miles expressed that the bell-weather governors’ elections in New Jersey and Wisconsin might be “markers” for America’s future direction.
Miles said Trump’s mandate is to “not mess up” and that Democrats must reach out in a meaningful way to the minorities that fled the party last year. He pointed out that “ticket splitting” was rarer and rarer. To keep the Senate from becoming staunchly in the column of the GOP, Miles suggested that the Democrats might focus on races in Maine and North Carolina, and on keeping Ossof in Georgia. He said the House is still remarkably close and that the Democrats gained 2 seats.
Finally, Miles looked at Virginia Governor’s races, saying that Spanberger probably has the Democratic nod and Winsome-Sears, the Republicans. Miles pointed out that Virginia is going to have a woman governor, and cautiously opined that if the mid-term elections go as in the past, the Democrats might “flip” the US house back in 2026. Miles ended his presentation by taking questions from the audience.
